Map Analyses: Tracking Population Density Changes Near Western Ukraine

As a part of CrisisReady’s ongoing effort to share relevant data and insights during the war in Ukraine, our research team is publishing map analyses showing the evolving changes of population densities along the Western border of the country. This includes population data from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. Other variables, such as data from Meta’s “Social Connectedness Index,” provide additional context to the patterns shaping population density and movement flows.

These maps are intended to provide insights on the displacement dynamics and the changing dispersal patterns of populations affected by the Ukraine War.

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Interactive Dashboard: Population Density Changes of Border Countries to Ukraine

Summary: This interactive dashboard shows population density changes in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia for a seven day period using anonymized and aggregated human mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook.) Users can explore the data at various geographic levels along with graphs that show patterns of change over time.

Usability: Two map views (left and right) can be explored by changing the geographic focus (country, admin level) on the top bar, or by clicking on the specific area of interest. Hotspots, or areas of interest, are visualized using the following color levels:

– Low levels of population density change are shown in brown, which signify a small but consistent decrease in population density in these regions.
– High levels of population density changes are shown in cyan, which indicates a small but consistent increase in population densities in these regions.

Interpretation: This analysis of population density changes uses anonymized and aggregated Meta (Facebook) data can indicate that people are leaving or coming-into a specific location at the time period of the analysis. This is not necessarily indicative of specific forced displacement, but likely one of the following scenarios from our remote analyses.

– Seasonal changes
– Fluctuations in the general population
– Changes in population which may be related to displaced people from Ukraine

These maps are best used as a “signal” about population changes related to the Ukraine invasion. Its role is to help augment or add-to existing operational updates, conversations, and humanitarian information products or maps. Often, the resultant discussions can provide more context on what’s happening in the region.

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March 26, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

26 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 20, 2022 and March 26, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Insights & Interpretations:

Poland: Increases in population densities have dropped in this time period. This may suggest that population movement is diffusing across the country.

Hungary: Similarly to Poland, increases in population densities are becoming less notable in many regions of the country, except for areas near Budapest and around the Lake of Balatan, which are showing increasing densities.

Romania: Many towns located near Bucharest and close to the Romania-Bulgaria border are seeing increases in population densities.

Slovakia: Many regions throughout the country are not showing increases or decreases in population densities, except for Bratisklavsky, a town near the Slovakia-Austria border.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 22, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

22 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 16, 2022 and March 22, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Insights & Interpretations:

Poland: Both increases and decreases in population densities across the country have dropped significantly during this period. Many municipalities are continuing to show decreases in population densities, rather than increases.

Hungary: A drop in both the increases and decreases of population densities are occurring across the country. Subregions seeing the most consistent increases are located near Budapest.

Romania: The Eastern regions of the country are showing slight increases in population densities. This is especially true in the Southeastern region, close to the border of Bulgaria.

Slovakia: Increases and decreases in population densities have begun to even out, including areas near the border of Ukraine. This may suggest that movement in the country is beginning to diffuse elsewhere.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 20, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

20 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 14, 2022 and March 20, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 19, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

19 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 14, 2022 and March 19, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

Interpretation

• Decreases in population density changes are reflected by brown dots.
• Increases in population density changes are reflected by green dots.

• Similarly to previous maps, the saturation and transparency of the colored dots reflect the strength of changes in population densities. The transparency of the dots also reflects the confidence in data representativeness.
• Higher saturation = greater rate of change.
• Lower saturation = lower rate of change. 
• Low transparency/high saturation = higher confidence in data representativeness. 
• High transparency/low saturation = lower confidence in data representativeness

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March 16, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

16 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 10, 2022 and March 16, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 15, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

15 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 9, 2022 and March 15, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 14, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

14 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 8, 2022 and March 14, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 13, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

13 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 7, 2022 and March 13, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
Note: Slovakia did not have data available for March 13, 2022.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), refugee reception point data from the Government of Poland, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 8, 2022 | Social Connectedness & Population Density Change Map Analyses of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

8 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 3, 2022 and March 8, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania compared with their social connectedness with Ukraine.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) Meta’s Social connectedness index (SCI,) a measurement based on Facebook friendship connections of Ukraine users, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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Interactive Map: Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

7 March, 2022

Summary: The interactive map below shows changes in population densities and refugee reception points along the Poland-Ukraine border as of March 7, 2022.

Data Sources: This map was generated using human mobility data gathered from Meta’s Data for Good initiative and border checkpoint information from HDX.

Note: To interact with the map below, click and drag the time selection tool. Information relating to the selected timeframe will be displayed above the time selection tool. Users may also move the map by clicking and dragging your cursor until the desired region is shown. Users may disable 3D mapping visualization, access the legend, draw a specific region on the map, or change the language by clicking the widgets displayed in the upper right hand corner.

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March 6, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

6 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between March 1, 2022 and March 6, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 5, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

5 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between February 24, 2022 and March 5, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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March 2, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

2 March, 2022

Summary: The following data maps show population density changes between February 24, 2022 and March 2, 2022 in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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February 26, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

26 February, 2022

Summary: The following data map shows population density changes as of February 26, 2022 along the Poland-Ukraine border.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint information from HDX, and regional data gathered from the European Commission using NUTS-3 administrative units.

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February 26, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

26 February, 2022

Summary: The following data map shows population density changes and refugee reception points along the Poland-Ukraine border as of February 26, 2022.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint information from HDX.

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February 26, 2022 | Population Density Change Map Analysis of Countries Bordering Western Ukraine

25 February, 2022

Summary: The following data map shows population density changes and refugee reception points along the Poland-Ukraine border as of February 25, 2022.

Data Sources: These data visualizations were generated using mobility data from Meta (formerly Facebook,) border checkpoint information from HDX.

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For more information on these data maps, or CrisisReady’s data policies and practices, please contact communications@crisisready.io.

For other situation reports, visit CrisisReady’s Resources page.