Hurricane Milton’s Path of Destruction
Hurricane Milton formed on October 5, 2024, and dissipated on October 13, leaving significant destruction along its path. Originating in the Caribbean Sea, the storm moved through the Bay of Campeche on Mexico’s Gulf Coast, intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane with winds reaching 180 mph. It caused major damage in Mexico’s northern Yucatán Peninsula before weakening as it tracked northeast toward the United States.
On October 9, Milton eventually made landfall in the United States near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 storm. Notably, Milton hit the state just two weeks after it had already endured the impact of Hurricane Helene in late September. Milton caused an estimated $50 billion in total damages and, as of October 21, 2024, claimed around 35 lives — 32 in the United States and three in Mexico.
In the weeks following Milton’s devastation, Harvard’s Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability hosted a panel exploring the far-reaching impacts of the storm and the ways climate change is reshaping hurricane behavior. The event featured a discussion between Dr. Satchit Balsari, co-director of CrisisReady and associate professor at Harvard Medical School, and Professor Daniel Schrag, Sturgis Hooper Professor of Geology and Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering at Harvard.
Balsari and Schrag discussed how investments in early warning systems, data-driven reporting, and community preparedness can save lives during disasters like Hurricane Milton. Dr. Balsari discussed the storm’s specific impacts on human health and displacement, drawing attention to the successes and challenges of evacuations in Florida as Milton swept through the state.
Balsari shared that in Florida’s mandatory evacuation zones along its western coast, compliance rates ranged from 80% to 90%. He noted that this significantly reduced casualties. However, he explained that evacuation rates dropped to 45%-50% further inland, revealing a need for improved outreach and resources. Moreover, some residents — such as those with pets, elderly individuals, or those in fortified buildings — were less likely to evacuate. This exposed a critical concern for the field of emergency response: the need to identify and address specific barriers that hinder compliance with evacuation orders and preparedness measures.
Harnessing Novel Data to Improve Response
CrisisReady’s response to Hurricane Milton showcased the potential of novel data in addressing these challenges. Throughout the storm, the team produced periodic situation reports showing changes in population densities in Florida’s most affected and at-risk areas. These reports were based on anonymized human mobility data provided by Meta’s Data for Good program, which offers such data to humanitarians to enhance safety and health during crises.
The CrisisReady team analyzed fluctuations in population densities by comparing the number of Meta app users at the time of the hurricane to baseline values recorded 90 days before Milton made landfall. This unique approach provided actionable insights into evacuation patterns, highlighting areas of compliance and regions where populations remained despite evacuation orders. This type of data offers emergency response teams new tools to align resources, target aid, and refine evacuation strategies, which may help improve outcomes and reduce fatalities during large-scale disasters.
The discussion also explored how experience with past disasters influences evacuation decisions. Balsari pointed to Florida’s recent experience with Hurricane Ian in 2022 as a key factor in the higher compliance rates along the coast, where impacts were expected to be most severe. He pointed to another historical example — the Bangladesh cyclones of 1990 and 1994. Despite being nearly identical storms, the death toll in 1994 was dramatically lower due to government investments in early warning systems and storm shelters. These examples demonstrate the effectiveness of proactive measures in reducing fatalities during extreme weather events.
Professor Schrag further highlighted the unpredictable and compounding dangers of hurricanes, such as flooding in unexpected areas or tornadoes spawned by the storm. Hurricane Helene, which struck just weeks before Milton, demonstrated these risks when heavy rains in western North Carolina caused catastrophic flooding, leading to over 250 deaths in an area unprepared for such impacts.
Both Balsari and Schrag acknowledged that no level of preparedness can fully anticipate all disaster outcomes. Balsari described the ripple effects of Hurricane Helene, where an epinephrine shortage arose due to an unexpected spike in bee stings, and disruptions to medical care, such as loss of power for critical equipment or access to dialysis centers, compounded the storm’s toll. “In the months after a hurricane, people continue to die at a higher rate than expected,” he warned.
Combining science, novel data, and community action is crucial to preparing for the unpredictability of extreme weather events. With climate change amplifying these risks, Hurricane Milton and other recent storms underscore the pressing need for greater investment in resilience and preparedness systems.
Header Image Source: Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
